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| [New York Post] |
The Yankees lost to the Blue Jays today, July 21, 2025, by a score of 4-1. Here's an analytical breakdown of why:
1. Carlos Rodón's Command Issues and Costly 5th Inning:
* High Walk Rate: Yankees starter Carlos Rodón (L 10-7) struggled with his command, issuing 5 walks over 5 innings. While he managed to escape trouble in earlier innings, this high walk rate ultimately caught up to him. His 107 pitches through 5 innings suggest a lack of efficiency, forcing him to throw more pitches per plate appearance.
* Meltdown in the 5th: The Blue Jays capitalized on Rodón's struggles in the 5th inning, scoring all four of their runs. This included a leadoff walk to George Springer, followed by a single from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a crucial two-run double by Bo Bichette. This demonstrates a high Leverage Index moment where the Blue Jays converted opportunities into runs.
* Unearned Runs and Defensive Lapses: Adding to Rodón's woes, two of the four runs in the 5th inning were unearned due to throwing errors by third baseman Oswald Peraza and shortstop Anthony Volpe. This highlights a critical defensive breakdown. While Rodón's FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) might look slightly better due to these unearned runs, the overall result still impacted the game significantly.
2. Offense Stifled by Kevin Gausman:
* Dominant Performance from Gausman: Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman (W 7-7) delivered a strong outing, allowing only one run on four hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings. The Yankees' Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against Gausman was likely very low, indicating their inability to consistently get on base and generate quality contact.
* Lack of Clutch Hitting: The Yankees were 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and left 7 men on base. This indicates a failure in clutch hitting and situational hitting, as they couldn't capitalize on their limited opportunities.
* Sole Offense: Giancarlo Stanton's Homer: The only run for the Yankees came from a solo home run by Giancarlo Stanton in the 4th inning. While a home run is a high-impact play, relying on a single swing for all offensive production makes a team vulnerable when other players aren't contributing. The Yankees' overall exit velocity and hard-hit rate against Gausman were likely low, except for Stanton's blast.
* Aaron Judge's Performance: Despite Aaron Judge's impressive season (.352 AVG, 36 HR), he finished 0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts. While he has historically strong numbers against Gausman, the Blue Jays effectively neutralized him, including an intentional walk at one point.
3. Blue Jays' Timely Hitting and Home Field Advantage:
* Bo Bichette's Key Double: Bo Bichette's two-run double in the 5th inning was a critical hit that swung the momentum and provided the Blue Jays with the lead. This demonstrates a high Win Probability Added (WPA) play.
* Extended Home Winning Streak: The Blue Jays extended their franchise-record home winning streak to 11 games. This suggests a significant home-field advantage, where they likely benefit from crowd energy and familiarity with Rogers Centre.
The Yankees' loss can be attributed to a combination of Carlos Rodón's command issues leading to a big Blue Jays inning, crucial defensive errors that allowed unearned runs, and an offense that was largely shut down by Kevin Gausman outside of a single home run. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, capitalized on their opportunities with timely hitting, especially in the pivotal 5th inning.
Let's dive deeper into the analytics of the Yankees' loss to the Blue Jays, focusing on specific metrics that paint a clearer picture:
1. Pitching Performance: Carlos Rodón (Yankees)
* Walks-Per-Nine (BB/9) & FIP: Rodón's 5 walks in 5 innings translate to a BB/9 of 9.0. This is significantly higher than his season average (likely around 3.0-3.5 based on his ERA and WHIP before this start). A high walk rate inflates pitch count, puts runners on base, and forces the pitcher into high-leverage situations more frequently. While two runs were unearned due to errors, his high walk total still put the defense in vulnerable positions. His FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) of this specific outing, despite the unearned runs, would still be elevated due to the walks and the overall hard contact given up, even if his ERA was skewed.
* Pitch Count Efficiency: Rodón threw 107 pitches through 5 innings, averaging over 21 pitches per inning. This low efficiency meant he couldn't go deep into the game, putting strain on the bullpen. A typical goal for a starter is 15-17 pitches per inning. The 14-pitch at-bat against Davis Schneider in the 5th, while ultimately resulting in an out, exemplifies this struggle. This prolonged battle drained his energy and contributed to the subsequent struggles in the inning.
* Hard-Hit Rate & Exit Velocity (EV): While specific game data on hard-hit rate and average exit velocity allowed isn't immediately available for Rodón in this game, the fact that the Blue Jays strung together a single, double, and then another double (Bichette's) in the 5th suggests they were making quality contact. If his average Exit Velocity Allowed was higher than his season average, it indicates the Blue Jays were hitting the ball harder more often, increasing the probability of hits.
* Stuff+ / PLV (Pitching Metric): Without specific pitch-by-pitch data, it's hard to analyze his "stuff" (velocity, movement, spin) on the day. However, a significant increase in walks, especially against hitters who aren't typically walk-prone, often points to a dip in command and/or effectiveness of his breaking pitches, which could be reflected in lower Stuff+ or Pitching Metric (PLV) scores for this particular outing.
2. Offensive Performance: Yankees Batters
* Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) & Expected wOBA (xwOBA): The Yankees' single run on four hits and two walks against Gausman indicates a very low wOBA for the game. This suggests they weren't getting on base often or hitting for power. Their xwOBA, which considers quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle), might also be low, implying they weren't consistently squaring up Gausman's pitches.
* Runners In Scoring Position (RISP): The 0-for-4 with RISP and 7 left on base is a critical statistic. This speaks to a lack of Clutch Hitting, where the team fails to convert opportunities into runs in high-leverage situations. This can be quantified by examining their overall Win Probability Added (WPA) in these scenarios, which would likely be negative for the Yankees in this game.
* Strikeout Rate (K%): While the Yankees have a relatively high K% as a team (22nd in MLB), they only struck out 8 times against Gausman in 7 innings. This isn't necessarily terrible, but combined with the low hit total, it suggests they were often making weak contact or not putting the ball in play effectively when they did connect.
* Barrel Rate & Hard-Hit Rate: Giancarlo Stanton's home run would have a high Barrel Rate and Exit Velocity. However, for the rest of the lineup, if their collective barrel rate and hard-hit rate were low, it reinforces the idea that Gausman was effectively limiting their ability to hit the ball hard and with optimal launch angles.
3. Defensive Performance: Yankees Infield
* Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) / Outs Above Average (OAA) for the Game: The two throwing errors by Oswald Peraza (3B) and Anthony Volpe (SS) directly led to unearned runs. While errors are often subjective, these demonstrably hurt the Yankees. If these players have consistently negative DRS or OAA metrics for the season, it highlights a recurring defensive vulnerability that the Blue Jays exploited. Volpe already has 12 errors on the season, suggesting this isn't an isolated incident. These errors contribute to a lower team Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER), meaning a lower percentage of balls put in play are converted into outs.
4. Blue Jays' Efficiency and Contextual Metrics
* Kevin Gausman's Quality Start (QS) and Game Score: Gausman's performance was a Quality Start (at least 6 innings pitched, 3 earned runs or fewer). His Game Score (a metric that evaluates a pitcher's performance based on outs, strikeouts, walks, hits, and runs) would be high, reflecting his dominant outing. His ability to limit the Yankees to just one run against a high-powered offense is a testament to his effectiveness.
* Timely Hitting (Blue Jays): Bo Bichette's two-run double had a high Win Probability Added (WPA), as it significantly shifted the odds of winning in the Blue Jays' favor. This kind of clutch hitting in high-leverage situations is a hallmark of successful offenses. The Blue Jays' Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) in that 5th inning might have been elevated, indicating they were finding holes in the defense or hitting the ball just right.
* Home Field Advantage: The Blue Jays extending their home winning streak to 11 games suggests a strong home-field advantage. This can be due to various factors, including crowd support, familiarity with the stadium, and potentially subtle biases in umpiring (though less quantifiable). The Win Probability models before the game likely gave the Blue Jays a slight edge due to this factor.
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