Why We Won: Analytic Deep Dive Into Yankees Ending Of Jays Longest Home Winning Streak

 

[Via MLB]

The Yankees defeated the Blue Jays today in a close 5-4 game, snapping Toronto's franchise-record 11-game home winning streak. The victory was a result of a few key moments and solid performances, which can be seen through some specific analytics.

Here's a breakdown of why the Yankees won:

 * Timely Hitting and Power: The Yankees offense capitalized on key opportunities, especially in the early innings. They jumped out to an early 3-1 lead in the first inning on a three-run home run by Jazz Chisholm Jr. and another home run by Cody Bellinger in the fifth inning, which temporarily extended the lead to 4-1. The game-winning moment came in the ninth inning when Ben Rice hit a tiebreaking home run, his 15th of the season, off Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman. This demonstrates the Yankees' ability to hit for power in critical situations.

 * Pitching Performances: While the Yankees starter, Cam Schlittler, allowed two runs on seven hits over five innings, he was able to keep his team in the game. It was a serviceable start, and the Yankees bullpen, despite a brief hiccup, was able to close it out. Ian Hamilton got the win and Devin Williams earned his 15th save, showing that the bullpen was able to perform when it mattered most.

 * Blue Jays' Defensive Struggles: The Blue Jays made a few crucial mistakes that helped the Yankees. A throwing error by Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe in the sixth inning actually led to a game-tying rally for the Blue Jays, so in that instance the Yankees' defense was a problem, but it was their timely hitting and the game's final moment that ultimately made the difference.

 * Analytics of Note: The box score shows that while the Blue Jays out-hit the Yankees 11-6, the Yankees were able to leverage their hits for more runs. The Yankees' six hits included three home runs, which is a very efficient way to score. This highlights the importance of extra-base hits over total hits in a close game.

The Yankees' 5-4 victory over the Blue Jays was a compelling game, and a deeper dive into the analytics reveals some key factors beyond the simple box score.

Pitching and Batted Ball Data

 * The Power of the Long Ball: While the Blue Jays had a more productive day in terms of total hits (11-6), the Yankees' offense was far more efficient due to their three home runs. This is a classic example of a "lopsided" statistical outcome where a team with fewer hits wins because they hit for more power. Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s three-run homer in the first inning and Ben Rice's game-winner in the ninth are perfect examples of this. They immediately converted hits into multiple runs, which the Blue Jays weren't able to do as consistently.

 * Bullpen Efficiency: The Yankees' bullpen, which is one of the team's strengths, held firm when it mattered most. The Blue Jays tied the game in the sixth inning, but the Yankees' relievers, including Ian Hamilton and Devin Williams, were able to shut down the Blue Jays' offense in the later innings, preventing them from taking the lead. This is evident in the fact that the Blue Jays only scored one run in the final three innings. This ability to get key outs in high-leverage situations, particularly against the heart of the Blue Jays' lineup, was crucial to the win.

 * Starter's Performance: On the other side of the coin, the Yankees' starter, Cam Schlittler, managed to keep the game from getting out of hand despite a relatively high number of hits allowed (7 hits in 5 innings). While not a dominant outing, he avoided major damage and allowed his team to stay in the game. This demonstrates the value of a "quality start" even when a pitcher isn't striking out a lot of batters. The Blue Jays' starter, Max Scherzer, gave up three earned runs on a single hit (Chisholm's home run) in the first inning, which put his team in an immediate hole. The three home runs allowed were a major factor in his performance, highlighting the Yankees' ability to capitalize on mistakes.

Offensive Analytics

 * Situational Hitting: The Yankees' victory came down to their performance with runners in scoring position (RISP). While the box score doesn't show the exact numbers for the whole game, an in-depth analysis would likely show the Yankees capitalized on their few opportunities, particularly in the first inning, where a single hit led to three runs. Conversely, the Blue Jays, despite having more hits overall, may have struggled to get key hits with runners on base, leaving them stranded.

 * Exit Velocity and Launch Angle: A deeper look at Statcast data for the game would reveal the quality of contact for both teams. The Yankees' home runs would likely have high exit velocities and optimal launch angles, indicating they were "squared up" perfectly. This would explain why they were able to get more runs on fewer hits. While the Blue Jays had more hits, they may have had a higher number of "weaker" hits that didn't generate extra bases or RBIs.

In summary, the Yankees' win was a prime example of how efficiency and timely hitting can overcome a disadvantage in total hits. They leveraged the power of the home run and the strength of their bullpen to secure a victory in a close game, demonstrating the importance of key moments and solid performances in high-leverage situations.